File Name: project economics and decision analysis volume 2 probabilistic models scribd.zip
The subject matter makes up the discipline known as decision sciences, or you might hear it called management science or operations research. However, Decision Tree can accommodate costs in a more direct fashion and simply minimize expected cost. Many of them are also animated.
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- Project Economics and Decision Analysis: Probabilistic Models
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The wildcatters decision was a tough one.
Cse 551 Foundations Of Algorithms Asu
Magdi Ragheb. Rolling blackouts and power outages affected 15 states on Tuesday, February 16, as a polar vortex dumped Arctic air into much of the country. Gas wellheads froze, gas turbines were shut down, wind turbines lost their grid stand-by power, and solar collectors were covered with snow. This curtailed its ability to satisfy a peak demand of 69 GW over several days; a surge even greater than anticipated. In its plan for an extreme winter weather event, Ercot says it expects only 7 percent to be provided by wind energy.
A lot of the generation that has gone offline has been primarily due to issues on the natural gas system. One of two reactors shut down at the South Texas Nuclear Power Station an hour southwest of Houston, knocking out about half of its 2, megawatts of generating capacity.
The plant, which is one of the newer ones in the country, normally provides power to more than 2 million Texas homes. The second reactor at the plant, which is operating as normal, provided more than 1, megawatts of electricity.
Texas has another two-unit nuclear facility southwest of Dallas, the Comanche Peak nuclear power plant, that remained fully up and running. Shutdowns related to weather are uncommon for nuclear plants, which are known for their high capacity factors. Some equipment in some nuclear plants in Texas has not been hardened for extreme cold weather because there was never a need for it. According to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the shutdown of the nuclear reactor was caused by a disruption in a feedwater pump to the reactor, and that caused the plant to trip automatically and shut down early Monday, February 15, It was the connection between the power plant and outside systems.
The shutdown of the reactor, one of the state's four, has played a relatively small role in Texas' power crisis, representing about 1, megawatts of the 30, megawatts of outages at the peak of the crisis. Nuclear power normally provides about 11 percent of Texas's electricity.
Wind turbines froze, too, but to a lesser extent. Still, the return of the 1,megawatt nuclear reactor would be a big boost to the grid. There is no single resource to blame for the event. Peak events usually happen over hours. This one is lasted days. Wind has been below expected output, but so have other sources. A nuclear power plant was shut down, 3. Of the grid's total winter capacity, about 80 percent of it, or 67 gigawatts, could be generated by natural gas, coal and some nuclear power.
Production of natural gas in the state has plunged due to the freezing conditions, making it difficult for power plants to get the fuel necessary to run them. Natural gas power plants usually do not have very much fuel storage on site. Instead, the plants rely on the constant flow of natural gas from pipelines that run across the state from areas like the oil and natural gas producing Permian Basin in West Texas, to major demand centers like Houston and Dallas.
Cold weather has posed a problem for all forms of power generation, not just wind. Brutal temperatures have caused vital equipment at natural gas and coal-fired power plants to freeze up, and oil and gas production have been hampered by shutdowns at wells, while refineries across the state have closed down.
The cause was the shutdown of a nuclear reactor in Bay City because of the cold. Texas did not run out of natural gas, but it ran out of the ability to get natural gas.
Pipelines in Texas do not use cold insulation, so things were freezing. About 83 percent of power generation in Texas is from fossil fuels, and it all shut down because the gas supply infrastructure has frozen.
About 10 percent of the wind turbines went frozen and out of action. Because nobody thought they needed to spend the extra money to harden them against freezing conditions in Texas. Nearly double that, 30 gigawatts, had been lost from thermal sources, which includes gas, coal and nuclear energy. In addition, Texas did not want to be part of a national power grid that would let it import electricity from states that have power to spare.
It built its own separate grid. Texas avoided federal government regulation. It is a large part of the gas infrastructure that has failed, not 90 percent of the renewables. If they harden the wind turbines against freezing weather, percent of them would be running next time this happens.
Wind turbines in northern climates have heating capabilities. There would have been no need to add that cost to those in Texas. That strategy might change in the future. These first-generation wind turbines are being superseded by a second generation of gearless wind turbines. At around 10 degrees below zero, wind turbines are shut down. The blades are not very flexible at that temperature and they are shut down instead of risking cracks generation.
The use of carbon fiber instead of fiberglass may eliminate this problem because of its higher strength. One must also remember the deicing needs under freezing rain conditions much like airplanes wings under the same conditions. Icing reduces lift and adds weight resulting in rotational stoppage and a failure hazard. Texas has no fresh water for cooling more thermal natural gas, nuclear or coal power plants that generate steam.
About 25 percent of Texas power is provided by wind turbines which froze, lacking adequate Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning systems HVAC features and extracting standby power from the failed grid. The gearboxes on wind turbines have frozen. Wind engineers did not find a need to install deicing systems on them, like on the wings of an airliner.
And the wellheads on natural-gas pipelines have also frozen. That causes problems with not only providing the power, but also for grid stability. If Texas was part of a national grid, then it would not have happened. But Texas has its own state grid connected to Mexico. Solar collectors both thermal and photovoltaic became covered in snow, ice, or clouded out and became inoperable barring an investment in battery or thermal storage systems.
Reversing the produced current in photovoltaic collectors may provide a deicing feature in future designs. Cellular phone networks went offline as backup generators at towers were freezing or running out of fuel or both. Governor Greg Abbott deployed National Guard troops to assist the state in relief efforts. President Joe Biden declared an emergency on Monday, February 18, for the Lone Star State, where temperatures in some areas hovered near zero.
The freeze also took a toll on the state's energy industry, the country's largest crude refinery shuttered operations. Over the weekend, natural gas pipelines had restricted flow as wellheads froze. According to PowerOutage. US, 15 states were experiencing rolling blackouts or outages because of extreme weather.
Most of the outages are seen in Texas, with over 4 million customers without power. USA shows 4. Oncor Electric Delivery, Texas' largest transmission and electric distribution utility, tweeted:. These controlled outages are occurring across the state and our entire service territory. All customers are urged to be prepared for cont' extended outages.
Please also prioritize safety. Warming stations are available in many areas- check online or call for more. The key takeaways from the Texas rolling blackouts, February 16, The polar vortex continued pouring frigid air into much of the country through this week.
Temperature anomalies were well below normal, creating major power-grid chaos. The disruption spilled over into Mexico, where the USA has curbed natural gas exports, resulting in power stations grinding to a halt. The plummeting natural gas exports from the USA to Mexico amid an Arctic cold spell in the country that has led to a gas demand surge caused blackouts in northern Mexico, with some 4.
Argus noted that most of the natural gas Mexico receives from the USA comes from the Permian Basin, where the production of both oil and gas has been affected by the cold weather that has caused power outages across Texas. Oil wells were being shut down, and so are refineries along the Gulf Coast, with oil and gas pipeline operations disrupted by the weather.
The blackouts may strengthen the argument that Mexico needs to be less dependent on energy imports, with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador spearheading the drive to reduce this dependency. Obrador wants to boost Mexico's domestic oil and gas production to tackle the problem, but this has proved challenging without the participation of private energy companies as the president seeks to fortify the dominant status of state energy major Pemex.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott requested LNG exporter Freeport to limit gas intake as domestic supplies are low due to frozen wellheads. The lack of gas flowing to powerplants plus unprecedented demand for power has resulted in the state's highest-ever electricity rates. Power demand has surpassed supply leading to massive blackouts. Following the power grid collapse in Texas, Gov.
Abbott will pressure lawmakers to investigate ERCOT's failures and make sure rolling blackouts never happen again. This is unacceptable. Reviewing the preparations and decisions by ERCOT is an emergency item so we can get a full picture of what caused this problem and find long-term solutions. I thank my partners in the House and Senate for acting quickly on this challenge, and I will work with them to enhance Texas' electric grid and ensure that our state never experiences power outages like this again.
Some people without electricity are using outdoor propane heaters to heat their homes. Some Texans have been living in their cars to stay warm as rolling blackouts have left millions without power. With temperatures near zero this morning, GM decided to idle its massive Arlington Assembly plant due to "weather problems" for the second day. The facility sits on about acres and employs approximately 5, people. Texas' grid collapse has transformed the state into a third world country.
There are three major power grids in the Lower 48 states: the Eastern Interconnection, the Western Interconnection — and Texas Interconnection.
Texas grid's independence dates back to World War II.
Project Economics and Decision Analysis: Probabilistic Models
Business Simulation Pdf. Still, current simulation games focusing on busines s processes, such as the ERP Simulation Game called ERPsim  , are also rather geared towards static business processes and are not intended for scenarios sim-. Trace Driven Simulation ii. Analyze chronological thinking: difference between past, present, and future. Monte Carlo Simulation with Palisade. A business simulation is a powerful tool for organizational learning and development.
Since , more than 2, professionals have taken his classes. He has published Decisions. In 25 years of academic experience, he chaired a math department, taught petroleum engineering, served as academic dean, and co-authored two texts in mathematics and statistics. Jim has a Ph. Now I have no students and no one is counting my publications. But, the ideas have been coming.
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Сьюзан стала быстро закрывать файлы электронной почты Хейла, уничтожая следы своего посещения. Хейл ничего не должен заподозрить -. Ключ к Цифровой крепости, внезапно осенило ее, прячется где-то в глубинах этого компьютера. Когда Сьюзан закрывала последний файл, за стеклом Третьего узла мелькнула тень. Она быстро подняла глаза и увидела возвращающегося Грега Хейла.
Комната оказалась пуста. Пуст был и вращающийся стул Мидж. Звуки шли сверху. Он поднял глаза на видеомониторы, и у него закружилась голова. Одна и та же картинка смотрела на него со всех двенадцати мониторов наподобие какого-то извращенного балета. Вцепившись руками в спинку стула, Бринкерхофф в ужасе смотрел на экраны.
Разве Дэвид тебе не объяснил. Она была слишком возбуждена, чтобы ответить.
Он купил две бутылки пива и протянул одну Двухцветному. Панк изумленно взглянул на бутылку, потом отпил изрядный глоток и тупо уставился на Беккера. - Чего вы от меня хотите, мистер. Беккер улыбнулся: - Я ищу одну девушку.
Это была вынужденная мера. Фонтейн почти во всем полагался на Стратмора и верил в его план, в том числе и в достойную сожаления, но неизбежную необходимость устранять Энсея Танкадо и в переделку Цифровой крепости, - все это было правильно. Но одно не давало Фонтейну покоя - то, что Стратмор решил прибегнуть к услугам Халохота. Тот, конечно, был мастером своего дела, но наемник остается наемником.
Но он получит то, что ему причитается. - Она встряхнула волосами и подмигнула. - Может быть, все-таки скажете что-нибудь .
То, что он увидел, невозможно было себе представить. Стеклянный купол словно наполнился то и дело вспыхивающими огнями и бурлящими клубами пара. Бринкерхофф стоял точно завороженный и, не в силах унять дрожь, стукался лбом о стекло.
Вопрос был лишь в том, насколько мощным. Ответ получили через двенадцать минут. Все десять присутствовавших при этом человек в напряженном ожидании молчали, когда вдруг заработавший принтер выдал им открытый текст: шифр был взломан.
Сьюзан переживала из-за того, что ей пришлось солгать любимому человеку, но у нее не было другого выхода. Все, что она сказала, было правдой еще несколько лет назад, но с тех пор положение в АН Б изменилось. Да и весь мир криптографии изменился.
За полтора метра до стеклянной двери Сьюзан отпрянула в сторону и зажмурилась. Раздался страшный треск, и стеклянная панель обдала ее дождем осколков. Звуки шифровалки впервые за всю историю этого здания ворвались в помещение Третьего узла. Сьюзан открыла .
К счастью, ножки стола были снабжены роликами. Упираясь ногами в толстый ковер, Сьюзан начала изо всех сил толкать стол в направлении стеклянной двери. Ролики хорошо крутились, и стол набирал скорость. Уже на середине комнаты она основательно разогналась. За полтора метра до стеклянной двери Сьюзан отпрянула в сторону и зажмурилась.
Для этого нужен был политический иммунитет - или, как в случае Стратмора, политическая индифферентность. Сьюзан поднялась на верхнюю ступеньку лестницы. Она не успела постучать, как заверещал электронный дверной замок.
Немец называл эту женщину… Беккер слегка потряс Клушара за плечи, стараясь не дать ему провалиться в забытье. Глаза канадца на мгновение блеснули. - Ее зовут… Не отключайся, дружище… - Роса… - Глаза Клушара снова закрылись. Приближающаяся медсестра прямо-таки кипела от возмущения. - Роса? - Беккер сжал руку Клушара.